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The Booming Photovoltaic Industry
The PV industry is booming!. The graph below shows its explosive nature. These soaring growth rates are predicted to continue as a new market, photovoltaics on residential houses, expands. Governments around the world have already developed plans to install solar cells on the roofs of at least three million additional houses during this decade. In Japan more than 144 MW of residential systems were installed in 2002. German subsidies led to over 85 MW installed there that year. So called “buy down” schemes in California improved installation quantities to 8 MW and there is significant support in other states too.
Evolution of annual cell/module production. (Sources: Renewable Energy World and Photon International
In response to the booming PV market, many manufacturers globally are rapidly increasing their production capacity. The March 2005 issue of the industry magazine, Photon International, reported that global photovoltaics production grew 67% during 2003. Growth rates in Europe and Japan that year were 70% and 62% respectively. Australian production growth, while lower than in those regions, was still dramatic at 26%. Growth rates in Europe and Japan that year were 44% and 48% respectively. The explosive demand for photovoltaics has caused a dramatic drop in the cost of PV, and this in turn promotes additional growth. The International Energy Agency reported in 2002 that photovoltaics had “dropped in price to between one-third and one-fifth their cost in 1980”. It is expected that when solar cells reach their long term potential of under $1 per watt, the photovoltaic market would expand by more than a factor of 1,000. In the next decade international studies predict an expansion of more than a factor of 20.
The Washington-based Worldwatch Institute reported in a press release dated 12 May 2004 that “Already, new renewables including wind, solar, geothermal, and modern bio energy supply enough electricity for more than 300 million homes worldwide. In 2003, an estimated $20.3 billion -- about one-sixth of total global investment in power generation equipment -- was invested in new renewables. Within the next decade, this is expected to approach $85 billion annually. The growth rates of some renewables are closer to those of computers than the single-digit growth rates of today's energy economies.” Joel Makower and co-authors of Clean Energy Trends 2004 predict that “solar photovoltaics (including modules, system components and installation) will grow from a [US]$4.7 billion industry in 2003 to more than [US]$30.8 billion by 2013. Wind power (Installation costs) will expand from [US]$7.5 billion in 2003 to approximately [US]$47.6 billion in 2013.”
Historical Trendline of Price of Photovoltaics and Shipment Size
Job Creation and Educational Requirements
"The rapidly expanding photovoltaic industry creates the need for photovoltaic engineers. The European Photovoltaic Energy Barometer tells us that “the opening of a new production facility leads to the creation of an average of 20 jobs per MWp capacity, to which approximately 30 jobs per MWp capacity have to be added for people who are working for suppliers, retailers and installation and maintenance services. The European photovoltaic sector alone represents nearly 15 000 jobs and has a turnover in the region of one billion euros.”
"Job prospects in the photovoltaic sector are very good. Accordng to the EPIA, the number of employees could reach 59 000 people if European objectives are reached." Photovoltaic Energy Barometer
International Job Growth - What Do the Experts Say?
Two 2001 international studies show that the job growth has been even greater than previously predicted in the 1996 Green paper adopted by the European Parliament and subsequently expanded into a White paper. The first study, conducted by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, predicts that there will be some 78,000 jobs in Australia generated by the year 2020. The study shows that more than 8,000 of these jobs will be available by 2010, increasing massively by 2020. On a global basis the study predicts that more than two million jobs will be generated by 2020. (Source: Solar Generation, European Photovoltaic Industry Association and Greenpeace International, October 2001)
The second 2001 study, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners within the National Centre for Photovoltaics in the USA, predicts that within 20 years, the industry will employ more than 150,000 Americans in the domestic, high-tech photovoltaic industry. As this report states, 'by the end of the 2020s, the industry expects to double this employment with jobs at the same level currently supported by General Motors or the U.S. steel industry." (Source: NREL, Report No. BR-520-30280: Second Quarter 2001, p. 7).
Jobs growth is and will continue to be rapid in all the major renewable energy technologies. A 2002 International Energy Agency report, Renewable Energy…into the Mainstream, confirmed that, “every renewable energy industry is rapidly expanding its workforce”. The European Union has studied the employment and economic impacts of expanding renewable energy industry in Europe. Their report, The Impact of Renewables on Employment and Economic Growth, predicts that by 2020 the expansion will create about 900,000 jobs, including 500,000 involved in production of biomass fuels.
The Washington-based Worldwatch Institute reported in a press release dated 10 July 2003 that “Annual production of solar power systems has grown 150 percent in the past three years, while the production of wind turbines has increased by 78 percent. Sales of wind turbines generated roughly $7 billion in 2002, and support about 100,000 jobs.… Around the world, renewable energy is being recognized as a means to reduce the threat of global climate change, stimulate development, and create jobs.” The Institute forsees a progressive adoption of wind, then solar, concurrent with expansion of other renewables like biodiesel and geothermal.
In 2003, the Electricity Training Association Employment and Skills Survey was released in the UK. This report was based on a survey of their employer members, many of whom foresaw a looming shortfall in skilled people, in a wide range of specialties, to grow the industry. A quote: “The industry is experiencing a range of skills shortages and anticipates some difficulties in meeting its human resource requirements to 2010”.
The estimates in the graph above are based on the Directory of the USA Photovoltaics Industry, SEIA, 1996, and on 'Energy Alternatives and Jobs', Renewable Energy World, V.3, No. 6, Nov/Dec 2000, pp. 26-32.
What Education Is Needed For These Jobs?
Many manufacturers and end users have identified that limited educational opportunities exist for engineers to gain the necessary training and qualifications to suit the needs of the rapidly expanding photovoltaics and renewable energy sectors. For example, Western Power, who owns all the electricity grids in Western Australia, found it impossible to find appropriately trained engineers for its rapidly expanding use of renewable energy technologies such as wind power and photovoltaics. Western Power consequently took the initiative to fund the establishment of a new undergraduate engineering program at Murdoch University specifically addressing this need. In NSW, photovoltaic manufacturing has been particularly strong with almost all of Australia’s manufacturing capacity being based in Sydney (although Origin Energy is constructing a pilot factory in Adelaide). A similar situation existed whereby appropriately trained engineers have been unavailable. The local photovoltaics industry drew heavily on graduates from Electrical Engineering at the University of New South Wales and then subsequently facilitated additional training for these graduates to equip them as photovoltaic engineers. Of the 137 graduates from Electrical Engineering in 1998 at UNSW, 3 of the top 5 students entered the local photovoltaics industry.
Engineering Degrees in Photovoltaics and Solar Energy and Renewable Energy Engineering
In 1999, the Australian Research Council (ARC) established 8 Key Centres Australia-wide across all disciplines, with one of these in photovoltaics. The ARC also chose the UNSW team of world leading academics as the ones to develop and implement the new educational programs. This team of academics has led the world for 20 years in terms of solar cell performance records but has also developed the most successfully commercialised new photovoltaic technology internationally over the same period. The new educational program is the world’s first undergraduate engineering degree in Photovoltaics and Solar Energy and commenced March, 2000. The new engineering program at Murdoch University commenced one year after the program at UNSW and takes advantage of many of the subjects developed at UNSW that are able to be offered for distance learning via the Internet.
2003 saw the first intake in a broader degree course at UNSW, Renewable Energy Engineering, building on earlier development work at Murdoch University. This course includes the full range of renewable energy technologies. Together, these new programs give Australia an internationally leading position in the educational area.
Renewable Energy Jobs in NSW
A pre-budget submission for the NSW Environment Budget 2002-3 by the Combined Environment Groups, Paths to a Green Economy, said that “the sustainable energy industry employs 4700 people and indirectly supports up to 13,200 NSW jobs”. A major report on sustainable energy jobs in NSW, Sustainable Energy Jobs Report, was prepared by The Allen Consulting Group on behalf of the Sustainable Energy Development Authority in 2003. They considered the effects of various government policy settings on the NSW sustainable energy industry and on the economy, including employment impacts beyond the industry. In the worst scenario all existing support is withdrawn but in the most supportive, cumulative scenario the industry is deliberately encouraged, resulting in 1310 additional sustainable energy jobs in NSW and 4100 new jobs overall by 2020.
Which Companies Employ Photovoltaic Engineers?
At present, the major companies employing photovoltaic engineers include manufacturers, research organisations, system design and integration companies, electricity utilities (such as Western Power. Origin Power, etc), and major end users of products including, communications companies such as Telstra. However, the number of companies employing photovoltaic engineers is increasing. Many more companies are recognising the importance of these energy sources and hence for appropriately trained engineers. This demand is being fuelled by both the environmentally friendly nature of renewable energy technologies and also by the technical advantages inherent in photovoltaics. Even major oil companies are investing heavily in solar technology, indicating the need for photovoltaic and renewable energy engineers. For example, Shell Oil Company has publicly announced that 50% of its entire business is likely to be through renewable energy technologies by 2050. Similarly, BP Solar has been expanding its photovoltaic production capacity by a factor of 2 each year and has announced that it will grow to a $1 billion per year business by 2007. Three of the biggest five producers are Japanese companies, Sharp, Kyocera and Sanyo. Sharp, was in 2002 nearly twice as big as its nearest rival, BP Solar.
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